TIPS, SHATIN AND THE MOREIRA FACTOR

(Courtesy of http://www.fasttrack.hk)

RACING NEWS FROM THE TWITTERVERSE

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 1

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 2

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 3

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 4

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 5

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 6

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 7

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 8

Racing news from the twitterverse‏ 9

FACTOR 1

The news that Joao Moreira was adoping a wait-and-see approach, and only taking out- or offered- a six month contract with the HKJC for next season has tongues wagging- no, no, he’s not been wooed back by Nathan Tinkler for The Pie Man’s nick, knack Patinak return from the wilderness to horse racing- about his possible next move or, more importantly, what it would take to keep the rider being the Master Sommelier of Hong Kong racing.

FACTOR 2

Moreira, the Magic Man, is no fool and could also be Sade’s Smooth Operator who, this week, gave the racing media a politically correct and erudite explanation about him leaving all options open- for himself, he was clear to point out, and the Club- to see if both can continue to make sweet music together.

FACTOR 3

Is Moreira weighing out an offer from Godolphin to step in for Silvestre de Souza, below- or could it even be the precocious talents of Mikhael Barzalona who’s had an annus horribilis with Godolphin and its ever-changing roster of riders for its runners?

FACTOR 4

We might be wrong, but we can’t see this happening for too many reasons to get into now- though we can see Souza riding in Hong Kong as we know he’s been putting out some LOUD feelers about riding here.

FACTOR 5

Getting back to Moreira, could there be an offer on the table to tempt him to leave for Japan?

FACTOR 6

There are two offers we have heard about- rumors, of course- but surely, if this did take place, it would only be a two-month contract unless The Magic Man can do a Mandrake and pluck some fluent Japanese outta thin air which is needed to stay there for the long run?

FACTOR 7

Then again, with his wife and kids in Australia, wouldn’t Racing NSW or Racing Victoria do cartwheels across the floor to lure the Magic Man Down Under and roll out the red carpet for this real family man?

FACTOR 8

Of course, Moreira has poured cold water on the Godolphin rumours, but we think there’s something niggling at the brilliant Brazilian- definitely, the People’s Choice as Hong Kong’s Champion Jockey- with the signals sent out being mixed on the surface, but, we think, pretty cut and dry when dug a little deeper.

FACTOR 9

To us, Joao Moreira is sending a very clear message to the Chief Stipe and the HKJC’s Director of Racing: Give me the same type of stress and grief that I took on the chin- and to my wallet this season- almost ten suspensions- next season and which puts a dent in me winning the Jockeys Premiership, and, well, if you see me getting smaller, I’m leaving.

FACTOR 10

In other words, Joao Moreira is no one’s muppet. He knows his options and strengths – on and off the course- he has the support of every trainer and has powerful owners grovelling at his feet for him to ride their horses- something to bear in mind on a very different level with the increase in prize money and better Private Purchases in mind- and seems to have thrown down the gauntlet- with a smile.

FACTOR 11

How this gauntlet is picked up- and by whom- and the ways in which a “sure thing” can be negotiated to ease his mind about suspensions-a-go-go in an industry where there are no “sure things”- while other leading riders watch to see how this is played out-and how it might impact them- will require the patience of Job, the wisdom of Solomon and the negotiating skills of Henry Kissinger.

FACTOR 12

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THE FAST TRACKER EYES THE HUMUNGOUS TRIPLE TRIPLE JACKPOT!

With Zac Purton taking his two day suspension, many will be looking at the horses the Zac Attack might have ridden if here- and which appear to have gone to Tommy Berry who has a very good chance of winning the Jockey Challenge at good odds- as does Brett Prebble.

FACTOR 13

As usual Joao Moreira has his usual book of good rides and Dougie Whyte has twelve points already in the can when he wins race 1- but, to me, the latter cannot win the JC and, unless putting down $500,000, betting on the Magic Man is not worth the time.

FACTOR 14

Far better to use this type of financial layout to try and get the Triple Trio jackpot which is expected to reach $100m.

FACTOR 15

It sure would be money more wisely spent than betting on anything in Oz where the quality of most of the horses running these days are very average 87 rated horses- at best- the condition of tracks are dire, and the boat race that took place at Rosehill in the last yesterday had many shaking their heads- and venting their fury at the ride of the favorite- the “surest thing” since a one horse race.

FACTOR 16

R1 GREAT SPEED/MANIPULATION

Tony Cruz feels he doesn’t have enough bullets to be in this season’s trainers premiership, but a stable quinella with these two from his stable, could add to his stake earnings.

FACTOR 17

R2 GENUINE CHAMPION/NATURAL TEAM/HIT THE BID/OCEAN ROAR

Tommy Berry and Dennis Yip are making a formidable combination with Douglas Whyte looking at being the big loser when it comes to rides for the stable, and here, the new team should go close with Genuine Champion.

FACTOR 18

R3 JOYFUL LUCK/WINE LOVERS/DIAMOND START/NINE DRAGONS

A quick back-up for Wine Lovers and Dragon Start and with, possibly, Joyful Luck the one who to split them and Nine Dragons, racing down a class and at good opens being the party crasher.

FACTOR 19

R4 INCREDIBLE FELLOW/SPITFIRE/GOLDEN BAUHINIA/JOLLY SPRING

As Gerard Mosse would say with a perplexed expression, “Sacre bleu, mon ami, you want moi to ride zeez goats?” The horses in this race are truly merde.

FACTOR 20

R5 ORIENTAL FANTASIA/LIFE OF BEAUTY/BAMBOO DANCE/REAL GENERAL

The first leg of the multi million dollar Triple Trio jackpot to be won, and, going on what’s happened over the last few weeks, this first hurdle has seen horses without names filling the top three places and any semblance of form going out the window.

FACTOR 21

This race looks so fraught with danger, I’d take a horse at 20s as a banker and wheel it onto six legs and go with double bankers onto five legs in the next two legs.

FACTOR 22

R6 CELESTIAL SMILE/SPARKLING SWORD/FAMILY INTEREST/MONEY CAFE

Celestial Smile really should have won a race by now and can take this out with Sparkling Sword and Family Interests running into placings.

R7 TERRIFIC MASTER/INDUSTRIAL WAY/ROYALE ELEGANCE/WIN IT

Terrific Master was as green as envy but still impressed when winning its last start for Zac Purton.

FACTOR 23

With Purton taking his two meeting suspension, Matthew Chadwick jumps aboard the Tony Cruz-trained runner and this improving should run into the placings. But who will win? How long’s a ball of string?

FACTOR 24

Topweight Industrial Way copped a bad check at its last start and should have gone closer while it’s foolish to ignore that forgotten man of Hong Kong racing- Brett Prebble.

FACTOR 25

Prebble might not be making headlines, but, I reckon wins on average conveyances like- yes, I’ll keep on repeating it- Distinct Commander- to me, THE most interesting race of the season even when it came to the quinella- and the jockey’s determined ride and Melbourne Cup winning whoop when it won said to me that the jockey is very happy to be flying under the radar, being chillaxed, and delivering when it counts.

FACTOR 26

R8 ROMAN LEGEND/FANTASTICO/SPEEDY SANDY/PURE FORCE

Tony Cruz once told me that, as a local boy, he will do everything possible to give struggling apprentice- Alvin Ng- who was moved from the stable of Dennis Yip to whom he was originally indentured to Cruz for better mentoring- some winners.

FACTOR 27

Well, it’s been a long wait and today, Ng has some pretty good rides for his new boss.

The problem is this: Is he good enough to deliver?

Mr Bean's Holiday Italian Premiere - Rome

R9 SUN PINS/CANNY FRANCO/BEST TANGO/BULLISH SMART

I have no idea what Sun Pins are, but have read much too much on General Franco and how to better my tango skills for the parade of cougars and milfs on the prowl every Wednesday night at Post 97.

FACTOR 29

R10 WONDERFUL MOMENTS/VICTORY MASTER

Moreira should take this out for John Size while doing handstands on the saddle with only Hugh Bowman to worry about on Victory Master in case over-confidence comes into play.

FACTOR 30

R11 SMART BALL/FANTASTIC KAKA/VICTORY HERO/LET ME GO

If the Six Up is to pay more than chump change, this- and an upset in race nine- is probably the race that will provide the value and where eight horses can take this out and me throwing caution and any semblance of good sense out the window and believing that Alvin Ng on Smart Ball might be one of these eight.

FACTOR 31

BEST BET: R7 QUINELLA PLACE- 1,7.
NEXT BEST R10 QUINELLA PLACE- WONDERFUL MOMENTS/VICTORY MASTER
LONGSHOT R9 CANNY FRANCO (8)
LAY- JUST MISTERE/COOL PAL/DRAGON

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SARIKA’S FATHER’S DAY SIX UP

Shatin 63

R6- 1-3
R7- 1-7
R8- 1-8-10-12
R9- 2-6-7-8
R10-12
R11- 1-4-6-9-13

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TIPS FROM THE THIRD DIVIDEND FOR TODAY AT SHATIN

FACTOR 32

SHA TIN (HKG)
Sun 15.6.14
Day Races @HKJC_Racing
Turf (“C” Course)
Weather: The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.
This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong. At 8 a.m., Tropical Storm Hagibis was estimated to be about 260 kilometres east of Hong Kong (near 22.1 degrees north 116.7 degrees east) and is forecast to move north or north-northwest at about 10 kilometres per hour in the general direction of the coastal areas of eastern Guangdong.

In the past few hours, Hagibis moved northwards steadily towards the coast of Guangdong. According to the present forecast track, Hagibis will skirt about 250 kilometres to the east of Hong Kong, and make landfall over the coast of eastern Guangdong later today. Winds will not strengthen significantly in Hong Kong generally. However, the outer rainbands of Hagibis will affect Hong Kong and there will be swells. Unless Hagibis takes on a more westerly track, the chance of issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No.3 is not high.

Race 1: HKU FACULTY OF SCIENCE PLATE, 15/06/2014, 12:30, Griffin Race, Turf, “C” Course, 1400m, Good
1 – Great Speed (3)
2 – Manipulation (6)
3 – Exaggeration (1)
4 – Just Ace (5)

Race 2: HKU FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 13:00, Class 4, Turf, “C” Course, 1200m, Good
1 – Hit The Bid (3)
2 – Natural Team (6)
3 – Just Mistere (12)
4 – Genuine Champion (2)

Race 3: HKU SPACE HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 13:30, Class 5, Turf, “C” Course, 1200m, Good
1 – Joyful Luck (1)
2 – Wine Lovers (7)
3 – Diamond Start (12)
4 – Flying Keeper (8)

Race 4: UNIVERSITY MUSEUM AND ART GALLERY HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 14:00, Class 4, Turf, “C” Course, 1200m, Good
1 – Incredible Fellow (1)
2 – Spitfire (2)
3 – Forever Accurate (6)
4 – Jolly Spring (4)

Race 5: HKU FACULTY OF ARCHITECTURE HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 14:30, Class 5, Turf, “C” Course, 1600m, Good
1 – Life Of Beauty (4)
2 – Super Horse (5)
3 – Oriental Fantasia (11)
4 – Win Along (3)

Race 6: UNIVERSITY HALL HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 15:00, Class 4, Turf, “C” Course, 1400m, Good
1 – Family Interests (3)
2 – Celestial Style (1)
3 – Sparkling Sword (11)
4 – Thanksgiving (9)

Race 7: HKU FACULTY OF EDUCATION HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 15:35, Class 4, Turf, “C” Course, 1800m, Good
1 – Royale Elegance (7)
2 – Industrialist Way (1)
3 – Ocean Power (3)
4 – Dragon (13)

Race 8 (Q1): THE HONG KONG UNIVERSITY ALUMNI ASSOCIATION CHALLENGE CUP(HANDICAP), 15/06/2014, 16:05, Class 3, Turf, “C” Course, 1000m, Good
1 – Fantastico (10)
2 – Roman Legend (1)
3 – Pure Force (6)
4 – Hong Kong Dancer (8)

Race 9 (Q2): HKU FACULTY OF MEDICINE HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 16:35, Class 3, Turf, “C” Course, 1400m, Good
1 – Sun Pins (7)
2 – Bullish Smart (10)
3 – Ovett (2)
4 – Canny Franco (8)

Race 10 (Q3): HKU FACULTY OF ARTS HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 17:10, Class 2, Turf, “C” Course, 1400m, Good
1 – Wonderful Moments (12)
2 – Victory Master (2)
3 – Sichuan Vigor (4)
4 – Sea Diamond (9)

Race 11 (Q4): HKU FACULTY OF ENGINEERING HANDICAP, 15/06/2014, 17:45, Class 3, Turf, “C” Course, 1600m, Good
1 – Winning Instinct (4)
2 – Asia Rising (10)
3 – Let Me Go (1)
4 – Victory Hero (6)

BEST BET
Race 6: Family Interests (3)

NEXT BEST
Race 3: Joyful Luck (1)

VALUE BET
Race 7: Royale Elegance (7) – Currently, $6.40/$2.20

LONG SHOT
Race 9: Canny Franco (8) – Currently, $35.00/$9.00

QUADDIE ($100 gets you 39%)
1.6.8.10
2.7.8.10
2.4.9.12
1.4.6.10

SIX UP
1.3.11
1.3.7
1.10
7.8.10
12
4.10

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SELECTIONS FROM THE BIG APPLE (@SW064351)

big apple 4

BEST BET
Race 9, No. 7 Sun Pins
Kept on well after missing the start. Deserves another chance.

SECOND BEST
Race 10, No. 12 Wonderful Moments
Won with authority last time out. Gets down in the weights and can win again.

LONGSHOT
Race 8, No. 4 Fun ‘N’ Games
Tackles Sha Tin for the first time but he is drawn well and should be competitive.

QUADDIE
1,4,6,10,12 / 1,7,10 / 1,12 / 1,4,6,10. $50 for 41.66%.

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PARTING SHOT

FACTOR 33

FACTOR 34

FACTOR 35

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This entry was posted in brett prebble, casper fownes, dennis yip, Hong Kong Jockey Club, Hong Kong Racing, Horse Racing, JOAO MOREIRA, The horse racing industry and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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